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Category note · AI model release

OpenAI GPT-6 before Aug. 2026

Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before August 1, 2026?

Resolves on 2026.08.01. The market trades at 26% as of 2026.05.27 — implying meaningful but uncertain odds. Microsoft (MSFT) carries the linked S&P 500 exposure.

Open on Kalshi
Linked S&P 500
MSFTMicrosoft
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Referenced companies by sector

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Market · AI model release

OpenAI GPT-6 before Aug. 2026

26%Current Kalshi probability
Ticker
KXGPT-OPEN-26AUG01
Quote
24¢ / 28¢
Status
Active
Resolution
2026.08.01
As of
Quote as of 2026.05.27 02:23 UTC

Information Technology

1 referenced
MSFT$3.03T
Companies referenced
MSFT

Microsoft

Microsoft is included because AI model-release timing can affect infrastructure demand, software positioning, and cloud capacity.

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