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As of 2026.06.14
KXECONSTATCPIYOY-26MAY-T4.350%0¢ / 100¢KXUSTYLD-30Y26JUN30-T4.0050%0¢ / 100¢KXPAYROLLS-26JUL-T7000072%67¢ / 77¢KXRECSSNBER-2614.5%14¢ / 15¢KXNEWOUTBREAK-P-267.5%7¢ / 8¢KXNATGASD-26JUN0117-T3.20050%0¢ / 100¢KXTARIFFRATEPRC-26JUL01-1492%90¢ / 94¢KXWTI-26MAY14-T101.9950%0¢ / 100¢KXHURCTOT-26DEC01-T650%47¢ / 53¢KXWTIW-26MAY15-T101.9950%0¢ / 100¢KXHURCTOTMAJ-26DEC01-T419%14¢ / 24¢KXH200MON-26MAY31-2.73050%0¢ / 100¢
Category note · Geopolitical conflict

Taiwan Level 4 warning

Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before January 1, 2027?

Resolves on 2027.01.01. The market trades at 9.5% as of 2026.06.14 — implying low odds the answer is yes. Linked to 9 S&P 500 names including MU, INTC, LRCX, AMAT, TXN.

Open on Kalshi
Quote history
2026.05.16Daily mid, last 7 sessions2026.06.14
Linked S&P 500
MUMicron TechnologyINTCIntelLRCXLam ResearchAMATApplied MaterialsTXNTexas Instruments+4 more
Market map

Referenced companies by sector

9 companies shown · 0 more referenced

Market · Geopolitical conflict

Taiwan Level 4 warning

9.5%Current Kalshi probability
Ticker
KXTAIWANLVL4-27JAN01
Quote
9¢ / 10¢
Status
Active
Resolution
2027.01.01
As of
Quote as of 2026.06.14 09:25 UTC

Information Technology

9 referenced
MU$864.5BINTC$606.2BLRCX$361.7BAMAT$342.2BTXN$268.6BKLAC$236.6BQCOM$221.7BADI$204.9BTER$56.1B
Companies referenced
MU

Micron Technology

Micron Technology is included because the market references a public business driver linked to Semiconductors.

$864.5BOpen company dossier →INTC

Intel

Intel is included because the market references a public business driver linked to Semiconductors.

$606.2BOpen company dossier →LRCX

Lam Research

Lam Research is included because the market references a public business driver linked to Semiconductor Materials & Equipment.

$361.7BOpen company dossier →AMAT

Applied Materials

Applied Materials is included because the market references a public business driver linked to Semiconductor Materials & Equipment.

$342.2BOpen company dossier →TXN

Texas Instruments

Texas Instruments is included because the market references a public business driver linked to Semiconductors.

$268.6BOpen company dossier →KLAC

KLA Corporation

KLA Corporation is included because the market references a public business driver linked to Semiconductor Materials & Equipment.

$236.6BOpen company dossier →QCOM

Qualcomm

Qualcomm is included because the market references a public business driver linked to Semiconductors.

$221.7BOpen company dossier →ADI

Analog Devices

Analog Devices is included because the market references a public business driver linked to Semiconductors.

$204.9BOpen company dossier →TER

Teradyne

Teradyne is included because the market references a public business driver linked to Semiconductor Materials & Equipment.

$56.1BOpen company dossier →