China tariff 10-19.99%
92%Current Kalshi probability
- Ticker
- KXTARIFFRATEPRC-26JUL01-14
- Quote
- 90¢ / 94¢
- Status
- Active
- Resolution
- 2026.07.01
- As of
- Quote as of 2026.06.14 09:25 UTC
Category note · Tariff escalation
China tariff 10-19.99%
Will the tariff rate on China imports be between 10% and 19.99% on July 1, 2026?
Resolves on 2026.07.01. The market trades at 92% as of 2026.06.14 — implying high consensus the answer is yes. Linked to 21 S&P 500 names including NVDA, AAPL, AVGO, TSLA, WMT.
Quote history
Market map
Referenced companies by sector
16 companies shown · 5 more referenced
Information Technology
11 referenced
Consumer Discretionary
6 referenced
Consumer Staples
2 referenced
Industrials
2 referenced
Companies referenced
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Nvidia
Nvidia is included because China tariff policy can affect supplier routing, import costs, and cross-border demand for Semiconductors.
Apple Inc.
Apple Inc. is included because China tariff policy can affect supplier routing, import costs, and cross-border demand for Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals.
Broadcom
Broadcom is included because China tariff policy can affect supplier routing, import costs, and cross-border demand for Semiconductors.
Tesla, Inc.
Tesla, Inc. is included because China tariff policy can affect supplier routing, import costs, and cross-border demand for Automobile Manufacturers.
Walmart
Walmart is included because China tariff policy can affect supplier routing, import costs, and cross-border demand for Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail.
Advanced Micro Devices
Advanced Micro Devices is included because China tariff policy can affect supplier routing, import costs, and cross-border demand for Semiconductors.
Caterpillar Inc.
Caterpillar Inc. is included because China tariff policy can affect supplier routing, import costs, and cross-border demand for Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment.
Lam Research
Lam Research is included because China tariff policy can affect supplier routing, import costs, and cross-border demand for Semiconductor Materials & Equipment.
Applied Materials
Applied Materials is included because China tariff policy can affect supplier routing, import costs, and cross-border demand for Semiconductor Materials & Equipment.
Home Depot (The)
Home Depot (The) is included because China tariff policy can affect supplier routing, import costs, and cross-border demand for Home Improvement Retail.
Texas Instruments
Texas Instruments is included because China tariff policy can affect supplier routing, import costs, and cross-border demand for Semiconductors.
KLA Corporation
KLA Corporation is included because China tariff policy can affect supplier routing, import costs, and cross-border demand for Semiconductor Materials & Equipment.
Qualcomm
Qualcomm is included because China tariff policy can affect supplier routing, import costs, and cross-border demand for Semiconductors.
Analog Devices
Analog Devices is included because China tariff policy can affect supplier routing, import costs, and cross-border demand for Semiconductors.
Deere & Company
Deere & Company is included because China tariff policy can affect supplier routing, import costs, and cross-border demand for Agricultural & Farm Machinery.
Lowe's
Lowe's is included because China tariff policy can affect supplier routing, import costs, and cross-border demand for Home Improvement Retail.
General Motors
General Motors is included because China tariff policy can affect supplier routing, import costs, and cross-border demand for Automobile Manufacturers.
Nike, Inc.
Nike, Inc. is included because China tariff policy can affect supplier routing, import costs, and cross-border demand for Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods.
Teradyne
Teradyne is included because China tariff policy can affect supplier routing, import costs, and cross-border demand for Semiconductor Materials & Equipment.
Target Corporation
Target Corporation is included because China tariff policy can affect supplier routing, import costs, and cross-border demand for Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail.
Ford Motor Company
Ford Motor Company is included because China tariff policy can affect supplier routing, import costs, and cross-border demand for Automobile Manufacturers.