Hedgebook
As of 2026.05.12
KXRECSSNBER-2614.5%14¢ / 15¢KXUSTYLD-30Y26JUN30-T5.3050%0¢ / 100¢KXECONSTATCPIYOY-26MAY-T4.340%39¢ / 41¢KXPAYROLLS-26JUL-T6000054.5%49¢ / 60¢KXNEWOUTBREAK-P-2610.5%10¢ / 11¢KXWTIW-26MAY15-T101.9950%0¢ / 100¢KXTARIFFRATEPRC-26JUL01-1453.5%51¢ / 56¢KXNGASMAX-26DEC31-P4.5090%81¢ / 99¢KXHURCTOT-26DEC01-T568%64¢ / 72¢KXHURCTOTMAJ-26DEC01-T418.5%11¢ / 26¢KXH200MON-26MAY31-2.73077%58¢ / 96¢KXTAIWANLVL4-27JAN0114.5%14¢ / 15¢
Markets

Kalshi market index

All 47 public market pages referenced by Hedgebook.

Markets referenced
KXRECSSNBER-26Demand cycle

U.S. recession in 2026

500 companies referenced

14.5%14¢ / 15¢Quote as of 2026.05.27 02:23 UTCactive2027.01.31KXUSTYLD-30Y26JUN30-T5.30Rates

30-year Treasury yield > 5.30%

500 companies referenced

50%0¢ / 100¢Quote as of 2026.05.27 02:23 UTCWide quoteactive2026.06.30KXECONSTATCPIYOY-26MAY-T4.3Inflation

May CPI year-over-year

490 companies referenced

40%39¢ / 41¢Quote as of 2026.05.27 02:23 UTCactive2026.06.10KXPAYROLLS-26JUL-T60000Demand cycle

July payrolls > 60k

458 companies referenced

54.5%49¢ / 60¢Quote as of 2026.05.27 02:23 UTCactive2026.08.07KXNEWOUTBREAK-P-26Public health event

Pandemic in 2026

389 companies referenced

10.5%10¢ / 11¢Quote as of 2026.05.27 02:23 UTCactive2027.01.01KXWTIW-26MAY15-T101.99Crude oil

WTI settlement > $101.99

22 companies referenced

50%0¢ / 100¢Quote as of 2026.05.27 02:23 UTCWide quotefinalized2026.05.15KXTARIFFRATEPRC-26JUL01-14Tariff escalation

China tariff 10-19.99%

21 companies referenced

53.5%51¢ / 56¢Quote as of 2026.05.27 02:23 UTCactive2026.07.01KXNGASMAX-26DEC31-P4.50Natural gas

Natural gas trades > $4.50

15 companies referenced

90%81¢ / 99¢Quote as of 2026.05.27 02:23 UTCactive2027.01.01KXHURCTOT-26DEC01-T5Hurricanes

Atlantic hurricanes > 5

12 companies referenced

68%64¢ / 72¢Quote as of 2026.05.27 02:23 UTCactive2026.12.02KXHURCTOTMAJ-26DEC01-T4Hurricanes

Major Atlantic hurricanes > 4

10 companies referenced

18.5%11¢ / 26¢Quote as of 2026.05.27 02:23 UTCactive2026.12.02KXH200MON-26MAY31-2.730GPU compute

H200 compute price > $2.73

9 companies referenced

77%58¢ / 96¢Quote as of 2026.05.27 02:23 UTCactive2026.06.01KXTAIWANLVL4-27JAN01Geopolitical conflict

Taiwan Level 4 warning

9 companies referenced

14.5%14¢ / 15¢Quote as of 2026.05.27 02:23 UTCactive2027.01.01KXMORTGAGERATE-26DEC-T6.7Mortgage Rates

30-year mortgage rate high

7 companies referenced

61%60¢ / 62¢Quote as of 2026.05.27 02:23 UTCactive2027.01.01KXNGASMAX-26DEC31-P7.00Natural gas

Natural gas trades > $7.00

7 companies referenced

21%8¢ / 34¢Quote as of 2026.05.27 02:23 UTCactive2027.01.01KXNHSALES-26MAY28-T680Company KPI

New home sales > 680k

7 companies referenced

46.5%45¢ / 48¢Quote as of 2026.05.27 02:23 UTCactive2026.05.28KXCOPPERD-26MAY1317-T6.62Industrial metals

Copper close > $6.62/lb

6 companies referenced

50%0¢ / 100¢Quote as of 2026.05.27 02:23 UTCWide quotefinalized2026.05.13KXEHSALES-26JUN09-T4.00Company KPI

Existing home sales > 4.00m

5 companies referenced

57%56¢ / 58¢Quote as of 2026.05.27 02:23 UTCactive2026.06.09KXCLAUDE-MYTH-26NOV01AI model release

Anthropic Mythos before Nov. 2026

2 companies referenced

58.5%55¢ / 62¢Quote as of 2026.05.27 02:23 UTCactive2026.11.01KXNATGASMON-26MAY2917-T2.999Natural gas

Natural gas close > $2.999

2 companies referenced

51%48¢ / 54¢Quote as of 2026.05.27 02:23 UTCactive2026.05.29KXWTI-26MAY13-T101.99Crude oil

WTI close > $101.99

2 companies referenced

50%0¢ / 100¢Quote as of 2026.05.27 02:23 UTCWide quotefinalized2026.05.13AMAZONFTC-29DEC31Antitrust

Amazon antitrust ruling

1 companies referenced

56%54¢ / 58¢Quote as of 2026.05.27 02:23 UTCactive2030.01.01KXAAPLCEOCHANGE-26CEO change

Tim Cook leaves Apple

1 companies referenced

94.5%94¢ / 95¢Quote as of 2026.05.27 02:23 UTCactive2027.01.02KXACQUANNOUNCEPINS-27JAN01-AMAZPINTM&A regulatory

Amazon / Pinterest acquisition

1 companies referenced

8%7¢ / 9¢Quote as of 2026.05.27 02:23 UTCactive2027.01.01KXACQUANNOUNCEPINS-27JAN01-GOOGPINTM&A regulatory

Google / Pinterest acquisition

1 companies referenced

4%3¢ / 5¢Quote as of 2026.05.27 02:23 UTCactive2027.01.01KXACQUANNOUNCEPINS-27JAN01-METAPINTM&A regulatory

Meta / Pinterest acquisition

1 companies referenced

4%3¢ / 5¢Quote as of 2026.05.27 02:23 UTCactive2027.01.01KXBA-26JULDELIV-160Company KPI

Boeing Q2 deliveries > 160

1 companies referenced

35%32¢ / 38¢Quote as of 2026.05.27 02:23 UTCactive2026.08.27KXCCL-26JUNALBD-24300000.0Company KPI

Carnival Q2 berth days > 24.3m

1 companies referenced

58.5%56¢ / 61¢Quote as of 2026.05.27 02:23 UTCactive2026.07.23KXCOST-26MAYCARDS-149000000.0Company KPI

Costco cardholders > 149m

1 companies referenced

37.5%37¢ / 38¢Quote as of 2026.05.27 02:23 UTCactive2026.06.27KXF-26JULUSSALES-520000Company KPI

Ford Q2 U.S. sales > 520k

1 companies referenced

35%33¢ / 37¢Quote as of 2026.05.27 02:23 UTCactive2026.08.28KXFDX-26JUNADV-17400000.0Company KPI

FedEx average daily volume > 17.4m

1 companies referenced

43%40¢ / 46¢Quote as of 2026.05.27 02:23 UTCactive2026.07.23KXGPT-OPEN-26AUG01AI model release

OpenAI GPT-6 before Aug. 2026

1 companies referenced

26%24¢ / 28¢Quote as of 2026.05.27 02:23 UTCactive2026.08.01KXJPMCEONEW-30-MLCEO change

Marianne Lake as JPMorgan CEO

1 companies referenced

43%41¢ / 45¢Quote as of 2026.05.27 02:23 UTCactive2030.01.01KXKRAKENBANKPUBLIC-27JAN01-BOAIPO timing

BofA takes Kraken public

1 companies referenced

50%46¢ / 54¢Quote as of 2026.05.27 02:23 UTCactive2027.01.01KXKRAKENBANKPUBLIC-27JAN01-CITIIPO timing

Citi takes Kraken public

1 companies referenced

45%41¢ / 49¢Quote as of 2026.05.27 02:23 UTCactive2027.01.01KXKRAKENBANKPUBLIC-27JAN01-GSIPO timing

Goldman takes Kraken public

1 companies referenced

37%34¢ / 40¢Quote as of 2026.05.27 02:23 UTCactive2027.01.01KXKRAKENBANKPUBLIC-27JAN01-JPMIPO timing

JPMorgan takes Kraken public

1 companies referenced

41%37¢ / 45¢Quote as of 2026.05.27 02:23 UTCactive2027.01.01KXKRAKENBANKPUBLIC-27JAN01-MSIPO timing

Morgan Stanley takes Kraken public

1 companies referenced

45.5%42¢ / 49¢Quote as of 2026.05.27 02:23 UTCactive2027.01.01KXLLAMA5-27AI model release

Meta Llama 5 before 2027

1 companies referenced

26.5%26¢ / 27¢Quote as of 2026.05.27 02:23 UTCactive2027.01.01KXLLM1-26DEC31-GOOGAI model release

Top AI model in Dec. 2026

1 companies referenced

18.2%18¢ / 18¢Quote as of 2026.05.27 02:23 UTCactive2026.12.31KXLUV-26JULFARE-231Company KPI

Southwest Q2 fare > $231

1 companies referenced

52%50¢ / 54¢Quote as of 2026.05.27 02:23 UTCactive2026.08.21KXNEWROLEGS-35DEC-JWACEO change

Next Goldman Sachs CEO

1 companies referenced

50%2¢ / 98¢Quote as of 2026.05.27 02:23 UTCWide quoteactive2035.12.31KXPM-26JULZYNSHIP-190000000Company KPI

Philip Morris Zyn shipments > 190m

1 companies referenced

53.5%51¢ / 56¢Quote as of 2026.05.27 02:23 UTCactive2026.08.20KXTAKEOVERACQWB-27JUN30-NFLXM&A regulatory

Netflix / Warner takeover

1 companies referenced

3.5%3¢ / 4¢Quote as of 2026.05.27 02:23 UTCactive2027.07.01KXTESLAENERGYBY-27-20Company KPI

Tesla energy growth before 2027

1 companies referenced

29.5%20¢ / 39¢Quote as of 2026.05.27 02:23 UTCactive2027.04.01KXTSLA-26JULDELIV-440000.0Company KPI

Tesla Q2 deliveries > 440k

1 companies referenced

30%29¢ / 31¢Quote as of 2026.05.27 02:23 UTCactive2026.08.21KXUAL-26JULPAX-47000000.0Company KPI

United Q2 passengers > 47m

1 companies referenced

70.5%68¢ / 73¢Quote as of 2026.05.27 02:23 UTCactive2026.08.14KXUBERTRIPS-Q2-3.8BILLIONCompany KPI

Uber Q2 trips > 3.8b

1 companies referenced

96%93¢ / 99¢Quote as of 2026.05.27 02:23 UTCactive2026.08.01