MSFT · Information Technology
Microsoft
5 public Kalshi markets tied to Systems Software exposure.
Public Kalshi markets
01AI model release
Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before August 1, 2026?
MSFT multichannel lock: OpenAI model-release cadence tied to Azure AI and Copilot demand.
38%36¢ / 40¢Quote as of 2026.05.12 23:30 UTC2026.08.01
02GPU compute
Will the H200 compute per-hour price be above $2.73 on May 31, 2026?
MSFT multichannel lock: GPU compute-price event tied to Azure infrastructure capex.
50%0¢ / 100¢Quote as of 2026.05.12 23:30 UTCWide quote2026.06.01
03Demand cycle
Will there be a U.S. recession in 2026?
Broad demand-cycle marker.
21.5%21¢ / 22¢Quote as of 2026.05.12 23:30 UTC2027.01.31
04Rates
Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury par yield for Q2 2026 be above 5.30%?
Long-rate and balance-sheet marker.
50.5%3¢ / 98¢Quote as of 2026.05.12 23:30 UTCWide quote2026.06.30
05Inflation
CPI year-over-year for May 2026
Inflation and input-cost marker.
22%18¢ / 26¢Quote as of 2026.05.12 23:30 UTC2026.06.10
Exposure context
Microsoft's five markets cover company metrics, demand cycle, rates backdrop, and event shocks. The traditional-market references below are context for how investors usually express those exposures; they are not claims about company hedging activity.
Traditional-market contextsingle-name equity optionssector ETF overlaysinternal planning / forecast exposure
Company-level context only, not a claim about trading activity.