Hedgebookby lauris.xyz
As of 2026.06.02
KXECONSTATCPIYOY-26MAY-T4.342%41¢ / 43¢KXUSTYLD-30Y26JUN30-T4.0050%0¢ / 100¢KXPAYROLLS-26JUL-T7000048%43¢ / 53¢KXRECSSNBER-2615.5%15¢ / 16¢KXNEWOUTBREAK-P-269.5%9¢ / 10¢KXNATGASD-26JUN0117-T3.20050%0¢ / 100¢KXTARIFFRATEPRC-26JUL01-1472.5%71¢ / 74¢KXWTI-26MAY14-T101.9950%0¢ / 100¢KXHURCTOT-26DEC01-T640.5%36¢ / 45¢KXWTIW-26MAY15-T101.9950%0¢ / 100¢KXHURCTOTMAJ-26DEC01-T423%20¢ / 26¢KXH200MON-26MAY31-2.73050%0¢ / 100¢
Topology

The shape of the catalogue

Hedgebook records 2,500 company-market links: 500S&P 500 constituents, five public Kalshi markets each. This page aggregates those links two ways — by GICS sector against risk channel, and by how much index market capitalization each market's referenced companies represent.

Sector x risk channel
Sector \ channelInput costsFinancing & ratesDemand cycleOperating KPIsFX, tariffs & supply chainRegulatory & legalEvent shock
Information Technology73 cos73$23.9T73$23.9T72$18.5T8$11.9T13$15.6T·56$8.88T
Financials76 cos76$7.91T76$7.91T76$7.91T···73$7.03T
Communication Services20 cos20$7.81T20$7.81T20$7.81T2$6.22T·3$6.59T17$1.21T
Consumer Discretionary48 cos48$6.97T48$6.97T46$2.48T4$4.57T6$2.24T1$2.86T36$1.74T
Industrials79 cos79$5.56T79$5.56T79$5.56T5$482B2$579B·62$3.94T
Health Care59 cos59$5.43T59$5.43T59$5.43T···59$5.43T
Consumer Staples36 cos36$3.66T36$3.66T36$3.66T2$745B2$1.09T·32$1.82T
Energy21 cos21$2.15T21$2.15T21$2.15T····
Utilities31 cos31$1.43T31$1.43T31$1.43T···1$39.4B
Materials26 cos26$1.23T26$1.23T26$1.23T···22$921B
Real Estate31 cos31$1.22T31$1.22T31$1.22T···31$1.22T
Cell count: companies in the sector with at least one link in the channelless referenced capmore referenced cap

Shading weights each cell by the referenced companies' index market capitalization — market cap referenced, not exposure measured.

Markets carrying the most S&P market cap
01Inflation

May CPI year-over-year

500 companies referenced

$67.3Treferenced cap42%active2026.06.1002Rates

30-year Treasury yield > 4.00%

500 companies referenced

$67.3Treferenced cap50%active2026.06.3003Demand cycle

July payrolls > 70k

490 companies referenced

$56.9Treferenced cap48%active2026.08.0704Demand cycle

U.S. recession in 2026

455 companies referenced

$34.8Treferenced cap15.5%active2027.01.3105Public health event

Pandemic in 2026

364 companies referenced

$25.9Treferenced cap9.5%active2027.01.0106Tariff escalation

China tariff 10-19.99%

21 companies referenced

$18.0Treferenced cap72.5%active2026.07.0107GPU compute

H200 compute price > $2.73

9 companies referenced

$14.7Treferenced cap50%finalized2026.06.0108AI model release

OpenAI AGI announcement

1 companies referenced

$5.37Treferenced cap48.8%active2030.01.0109M&A regulatory

Google / Pinterest acquisition

1 companies referenced

$4.69Treferenced cap4%active2027.01.0110AI model release

Top AI model in Dec. 2026

1 companies referenced

$4.69Treferenced cap14.8%active2026.12.3111CEO change

Tim Cook leaves Apple

1 companies referenced

$4.33Treferenced cap94.5%active2027.01.0212AI model release

OpenAI GPT-6 before Oct. 2026

2 companies referenced

$3.57Treferenced cap56.5%active2026.10.0113Geopolitical conflict

Taiwan Level 4 warning

9 companies referenced

$3.16Treferenced cap13.5%active2027.01.0114Antitrust

Amazon antitrust ruling

1 companies referenced

$2.86Treferenced cap51%active2030.01.0115M&A regulatory

Amazon / Pinterest acquisition

1 companies referenced

$2.86Treferenced cap6.5%active2027.01.0116Natural gas

Natural gas close > $3.200

34 companies referenced

$2.77Treferenced cap50%finalized2026.06.0117Crude oil

WTI May 14 close > $101.99

19 companies referenced

$2.10Treferenced cap50%finalized2026.05.1418Company KPI

Tesla energy growth before 2027

1 companies referenced

$1.63Treferenced cap64.5%active2027.04.0119Company KPI

Tesla Inc. Q2 production > 440k

1 companies referenced

$1.63Treferenced cap46.5%active2026.08.2120M&A regulatory

Meta / Pinterest acquisition

1 companies referenced

$1.53Treferenced cap5%active2027.01.0121AI model release

Meta Llama 5 before 2027

1 companies referenced

$1.53Treferenced cap16%active2027.01.0122CEO change

Marianne Lake as JPMorgan CEO

1 companies referenced

$817Breferenced cap41%active2030.01.0123IPO timing

JPMorgan takes Kraken public

1 companies referenced

$817Breferenced cap39.5%active2027.01.0124Industrial metals

Copper close > $6.50/lb

5 companies referenced

$760Breferenced cap50%finalized2026.06.0125Hurricanes

Atlantic hurricanes > 6

12 companies referenced

$634Breferenced cap40.5%active2026.12.0226Crude oil

WTI settlement > $101.99

12 companies referenced

$594Breferenced cap50%finalized2026.05.1527Mortgage Rates

30-year mortgage rate high > 6.80%

7 companies referenced

$542Breferenced cap45.5%active2027.01.0128Company KPI

New home sales > 680k

7 companies referenced

$542Breferenced cap50%finalized2026.05.2829Company KPI

Costco cardholders > 149m

1 companies referenced

$453Breferenced cap50%finalized2026.05.2830M&A regulatory

Netflix / Warner takeover

1 companies referenced

$369Breferenced cap3.5%active2027.07.0131IPO timing

BofA takes Kraken public

1 companies referenced

$360Breferenced cap49%active2027.01.0132Natural gas

Natural gas trades > $7.00

7 companies referenced

$305Breferenced cap44%active2027.01.0133IPO timing

Morgan Stanley takes Kraken public

1 companies referenced

$303Breferenced cap46%active2027.01.0134Company KPI

Philip Morris Zyn shipments > 190m

1 companies referenced

$291Breferenced cap51.5%active2026.08.2035Hurricanes

Major Atlantic hurricanes > 4

10 companies referenced

$288Breferenced cap23%active2026.12.0236IPO timing

Goldman takes Kraken public

1 companies referenced

$279Breferenced cap35.5%active2027.01.0137CEO change

Next Goldman Sachs CEO

1 companies referenced

$279Breferenced cap4.5%active2035.12.3138IPO timing

Citi takes Kraken public

1 companies referenced

$216Breferenced cap43.5%active2027.01.0139Company KPI

Boeing Q2 deliveries > 160

1 companies referenced

$187Breferenced cap37%active2026.08.2740Company KPI

Uber Q2 trips > 3.95b

1 companies referenced

$155Breferenced cap53.5%active2026.08.0141Crude oil

WTI May 13 close > $101.99

2 companies referenced

$136Breferenced cap50%finalized2026.05.1342Precious metals

Gold close > $4459/oz

1 companies referenced

$128Breferenced cap99.5%active2026.06.0243Company KPI

Existing home sales > 4.00m

5 companies referenced

$107Breferenced cap57%active2026.06.0944Company KPI

FedEx average daily volume > 17.4m

1 companies referenced

$89.8Breferenced cap43.5%active2026.07.2345Company KPI

Ford Q2 U.S. sales > 500k

1 companies referenced

$47.8Breferenced cap54.5%active2026.08.2846Natural gas

Natural gas close > $2.999

2 companies referenced

$39.5Breferenced cap50%finalized2026.05.2947Company KPI

Carnival Q2 berth days > 24.6m

1 companies referenced

$34.4Breferenced cap43.5%active2026.07.2348Company KPI

United Q2 passengers > 48m

1 companies referenced

$31.1Breferenced cap42.5%active2026.08.1449Company KPI

Southwest Q2 fare > $231

1 companies referenced

$19.3Breferenced cap50.5%active2026.08.21

The cap column sums the index market capitalization of the companies whose dossiers reference each market — market cap referenced, not exposure measured.