Hedgebook
As of 2026.06.14
KXECONSTATCPIYOY-26MAY-T4.350%0¢ / 100¢KXUSTYLD-30Y26JUN30-T4.0050%0¢ / 100¢KXPAYROLLS-26JUL-T7000072%67¢ / 77¢KXRECSSNBER-2614.5%14¢ / 15¢KXNEWOUTBREAK-P-267.5%7¢ / 8¢KXNATGASD-26JUN0117-T3.20050%0¢ / 100¢KXTARIFFRATEPRC-26JUL01-1492%90¢ / 94¢KXWTI-26MAY14-T101.9950%0¢ / 100¢KXHURCTOT-26DEC01-T650%47¢ / 53¢KXWTIW-26MAY15-T101.9950%0¢ / 100¢KXHURCTOTMAJ-26DEC01-T419%14¢ / 24¢KXH200MON-26MAY31-2.73050%0¢ / 100¢
Movers

Market repricing

Which Kalshi markets repriced. Change in mid probability over the selected window.

Hedgebook lists Kalshi markets that reference S&P 500 companies. Inclusion is not an endorsement of the question or its framing.

Markets ranked by repricing
KXCCL-26JUNALBD-24600000.0Company KPI

Carnival Q2 berth days > 24.6m

1 companies referenced

+44 ptsnow 87.5%KXBA-26JULDELIV-160Company KPI

Boeing Q2 deliveries > 160

1 companies referenced

+33 ptsnow 69.5%KXF-26JULUSSALES-500000Company KPI

Ford Q2 U.S. sales > 500k

1 companies referenced

+32 ptsnow 86.5%KXNATGASMON-26MAY2917-T2.999Natural gas

Natural gas close > $2.999

2 companies referenced

+26 ptsnow 50%KXPAYROLLS-26JUL-T70000Demand cycle

July payrolls > 70k

490 companies referenced

+24 ptsnow 72%KXFDX-26JUNADV-17400000.0Company KPI

FedEx average daily volume > 17.4m

1 companies referenced

+23 ptsnow 66%KXNGASMAX-26DEC31-P7.00Natural gas

Natural gas trades > $7.00

7 companies referenced

−22 ptsnow 22%KXTARIFFRATEPRC-26JUL01-14Tariff escalation

China tariff 10-19.99%

21 companies referenced

+19 ptsnow 92%KXECONSTATCPIYOY-26MAY-T4.3Inflation

May CPI year-over-year

500 companies referenced

+14 ptsnow 50%KXPM-26JULZYNSHIP-190000000Company KPI

Philip Morris Zyn shipments > 190m

1 companies referenced

+12 ptsnow 63.5%KXHURCTOT-26DEC01-T6Hurricanes

Atlantic hurricanes > 6

12 companies referenced

+9 ptsnow 50%KXLUV-26JULFARE-231Company KPI

Southwest Q2 fare > $231

1 companies referenced

−8 ptsnow 42%KXGPT-OPEN-26OCT01AI model release

OpenAI GPT-6 before Oct. 2026

2 companies referenced

−8 ptsnow 48.5%OAIAGI-29AI model release

OpenAI AGI announcement

1 companies referenced

−4 ptsnow 44.4%KXHURCTOTMAJ-26DEC01-T4Hurricanes

Major Atlantic hurricanes > 4

10 companies referenced

−4 ptsnow 19%KXTAIWANLVL4-27JAN01Geopolitical conflict

Taiwan Level 4 warning

9 companies referenced

−4 ptsnow 9.5%KXCOST-26MAYCARDS-149000000.0Company KPI

Costco cardholders > 149m

1 companies referenced

+4 ptsnow 50%KXKRAKENBANKPUBLIC-27JAN01-MSIPO timing

Morgan Stanley takes Kraken public

1 companies referenced

−4 ptsnow 42%KXEHSALES-26JUN09-T4.00Company KPI

Existing home sales > 4.00m

5 companies referenced

+4 ptsnow 50%KXKRAKENBANKPUBLIC-27JAN01-BOAIPO timing

BofA takes Kraken public

1 companies referenced

−4 ptsnow 45.5%KXKRAKENBANKPUBLIC-27JAN01-JPMIPO timing

JPMorgan takes Kraken public

1 companies referenced

−3 ptsnow 36.5%KXACQUANNOUNCEPINS-27JAN01-AMAZPINTM&A regulatory

Amazon / Pinterest acquisition

1 companies referenced

−3 ptsnow 3.5%KXMORTGAGERATE-26DEC-T6.8Mortgage Rates

30-year mortgage rate high > 6.80%

7 companies referenced

−2 ptsnow 43%KXLLM1-26DEC31-GOOGAI model release

Top AI model in Dec. 2026

1 companies referenced

−2 ptsnow 12.6%KXUBERTRIPS-26JUL-3.95BILLIONCompany KPI

Uber Q2 trips > 3.95b

1 companies referenced

+2 ptsnow 55.5%KXNEWOUTBREAK-P-26Public health event

Pandemic in 2026

364 companies referenced

−2 ptsnow 7.5%AMAZONFTC-29DEC31Antitrust

Amazon antitrust ruling

1 companies referenced

−2 ptsnow 49.5%KXTSLA-26JULPROD-440000.0Company KPI

Tesla Inc. Q2 production > 440k

1 companies referenced

+2 ptsnow 48%KXNEWROLEGS-35DEC-MMCCEO change

Next Goldman Sachs CEO

1 companies referenced

−2 ptsnow 3%KXLLAMA5-27AI model release

Meta Llama 5 before 2027

1 companies referenced

+1 ptnow 17.5%KXKRAKENBANKPUBLIC-27JAN01-GSIPO timing

Goldman takes Kraken public

1 companies referenced

−1 ptnow 34.5%KXACQUANNOUNCEPINS-27JAN01-GOOGPINTM&A regulatory

Google / Pinterest acquisition

1 companies referenced

−1 ptnow 3%KXTAKEOVERACQWB-27JUN30-NFLXM&A regulatory

Netflix / Warner takeover

1 companies referenced

−1 ptnow 2.5%KXRECSSNBER-26Demand cycle

U.S. recession in 2026

455 companies referenced

−1 ptnow 14.5%KXKRAKENBANKPUBLIC-27JAN01-CITIIPO timing

Citi takes Kraken public

1 companies referenced

−1 ptnow 42.5%KXNHSALES-26MAY28-T680Company KPI

New home sales > 680k

7 companies referenced

−1 ptnow 50%KXAAPLCEOCHANGE-26CEO change

Tim Cook leaves Apple

1 companies referenced

−1 ptnow 94%KXACQUANNOUNCEPINS-27JAN01-METAPINTM&A regulatory

Meta / Pinterest acquisition

1 companies referenced

+1 ptnow 5.5%KXTESLAENERGYBY-27-15Company KPI

Tesla energy growth before 2027

1 companies referenced

−1 ptnow 64%KXJPMCEONEW-30-MLCEO change

Marianne Lake as JPMorgan CEO

1 companies referenced

0 ptsnow 41%KXUAL-26JULPAX-48000000.0Company KPI

United Q2 passengers > 48m

1 companies referenced

0 ptsnow 42.5%KXCOPPERD-26JUN0117-T6.50Industrial metals

Copper close > $6.50/lb

5 companies referenced

n/anow 50%KXGOLDD-26JUN0217-T4459Precious metals

Gold close > $4459/oz

1 companies referenced

n/anow 50%KXH200MON-26MAY31-2.730GPU compute

H200 compute price > $2.73

9 companies referenced

n/anow 50%KXNATGASD-26JUN0117-T3.200Natural gas

Natural gas close > $3.200

34 companies referenced

n/anow 50%KXUSTYLD-30Y26JUN30-T4.00Rates

30-year Treasury yield > 4.00%

500 companies referenced

n/anow 50%KXWTI-26MAY13-T101.99Crude oil

WTI May 13 close > $101.99

2 companies referenced

n/anow 50%KXWTI-26MAY14-T101.99Crude oil

WTI May 14 close > $101.99

19 companies referenced

n/anow 50%KXWTIW-26MAY15-T101.99Crude oil

WTI settlement > $101.99

12 companies referenced

n/anow 50%