Hedgebook
As of 2026.06.14
KXECONSTATCPIYOY-26MAY-T4.350%0¢ / 100¢KXUSTYLD-30Y26JUN30-T4.0050%0¢ / 100¢KXPAYROLLS-26JUL-T7000072%67¢ / 77¢KXRECSSNBER-2614.5%14¢ / 15¢KXNEWOUTBREAK-P-267.5%7¢ / 8¢KXNATGASD-26JUN0117-T3.20050%0¢ / 100¢KXTARIFFRATEPRC-26JUL01-1492%90¢ / 94¢KXWTI-26MAY14-T101.9950%0¢ / 100¢KXHURCTOT-26DEC01-T650%47¢ / 53¢KXWTIW-26MAY15-T101.9950%0¢ / 100¢KXHURCTOTMAJ-26DEC01-T419%14¢ / 24¢KXH200MON-26MAY31-2.73050%0¢ / 100¢
Category note · AI model release

OpenAI GPT-6 before Oct. 2026

Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Oct 1, 2026?

Resolves on 2026.10.01. The market trades at 48.5% as of 2026.06.14 — splitting roughly even. Linked to 2 S&P 500 names: MSFT, ORCL.

Open on Kalshi
Quote history
2026.06.01Daily mid, last 3 sessions2026.06.14
Linked S&P 500
MSFTMicrosoftORCLOracle Corporation
Market map

Referenced companies by sector

2 companies shown · 0 more referenced

Market · AI model release

OpenAI GPT-6 before Oct. 2026

48.5%Current Kalshi probability
Ticker
KXGPT-OPEN-26OCT01
Quote
46¢ / 51¢
Status
Active
Resolution
2026.10.01
As of
Quote as of 2026.06.14 09:25 UTC

Information Technology

2 referenced
MSFT$3.03TORCL$537.3B
Companies referenced
MSFT

Microsoft

Microsoft is included because AI model-release timing can affect infrastructure demand, software positioning, and cloud capacity.

$3.03TOpen company dossier →ORCL

Oracle Corporation

Oracle Corporation is included because AI model-release timing can affect infrastructure demand, software positioning, and cloud capacity.

$537.3BOpen company dossier →