China tariff rate at least 20% on Jan. 1, 2027
52%Current Kalshi probability
- Ticker
- KXTARIFFRATEPRC-27JAN01-10
- Quote
- 48¢ / 56¢
- Status
- Active
- Resolution
- 2027.01.08
- As of
- Quote as of 2026.08.18 13:33 UTC
Core reference market · Policy Access
China tariff rate at least 20% on Jan. 1, 2027
Will the tariff rate on People's Republic of China imports be at least 20% on Jan 1, 2027?
Resolves on 2027.01.08. The market trades at 52% as of 2026.08.18 — splitting roughly even. Linked to 13 S&P 500 names including AAPL, AMD, CAT, DE, F.
Settlement variable and source
If the general import tariff rate on imports from People's Republic of China into the United States on Jan 1, 2027 is at least 20%, then the market resolves to Yes.
View Kalshi contract rulesMarket map
Referenced companies by sector
13 companies shown · 0 more referenced
Information Technology
6 referenced
Consumer Discretionary
4 referenced
Industrials
2 referenced
Consumer Staples
1 referenced
Issuer-specific core · 13
Apple Inc.
Apple Inc.'s 10-Q discusses tariffs and import-policy conditions; Will the tariff rate on People's Republic of China imports be at least 20% on Jan 1, 2027? records the corresponding contract state.
10-Q source · 2026-07-31Tesla, Inc.
Tesla, Inc.'s 10-Q discusses tariffs and import-policy conditions; Will the tariff rate on People's Republic of China imports be at least 20% on Jan 1, 2027? records the corresponding contract state.
10-Q source · 2026-07-23Advanced Micro Devices
Advanced Micro Devices's 10-Q discusses tariffs and import-policy conditions; Will the tariff rate on People's Republic of China imports be at least 20% on Jan 1, 2027? records the corresponding contract state.
10-Q source · 2026-08-05Caterpillar Inc.
Caterpillar Inc.'s 10-Q discusses tariffs and import-policy conditions; Will the tariff rate on People's Republic of China imports be at least 20% on Jan 1, 2027? records the corresponding contract state.
10-Q source · 2026-08-05Lam Research
Lam Research's 10-K discusses tariffs and import-policy conditions; Will the tariff rate on People's Republic of China imports be at least 20% on Jan 1, 2027? records the corresponding contract state.
10-K source · 2026-08-07Home Depot (The)
Home Depot (The)'s 10-Q discusses tariffs and import-policy conditions; Will the tariff rate on People's Republic of China imports be at least 20% on Jan 1, 2027? records the corresponding contract state.
10-Q source · 2026-05-27Texas Instruments
Texas Instruments's 10-Q discusses tariffs and import-policy conditions; Will the tariff rate on People's Republic of China imports be at least 20% on Jan 1, 2027? records the corresponding contract state.
10-Q source · 2026-07-24Qualcomm
Qualcomm's 10-Q discusses tariffs and import-policy conditions; Will the tariff rate on People's Republic of China imports be at least 20% on Jan 1, 2027? records the corresponding contract state.
10-Q source · 2026-07-29Deere & Company
Deere & Company's 10-Q discusses tariffs and import-policy conditions; Will the tariff rate on People's Republic of China imports be at least 20% on Jan 1, 2027? records the corresponding contract state.
10-Q source · 2026-05-28General Motors
General Motors's 10-Q discusses tariffs and import-policy conditions; Will the tariff rate on People's Republic of China imports be at least 20% on Jan 1, 2027? records the corresponding contract state.
10-Q source · 2026-07-21Teradyne
Teradyne's 10-Q discusses tariffs and import-policy conditions; Will the tariff rate on People's Republic of China imports be at least 20% on Jan 1, 2027? records the corresponding contract state.
10-Q source · 2026-07-31Target Corporation
Target Corporation's 10-Q discusses tariffs and import-policy conditions; Will the tariff rate on People's Republic of China imports be at least 20% on Jan 1, 2027? records the corresponding contract state.
10-Q source · 2026-05-29Ford Motor Company
Ford Motor Company's 10-Q discusses tariffs and import-policy conditions; Will the tariff rate on People's Republic of China imports be at least 20% on Jan 1, 2027? records the corresponding contract state.
10-Q source · 2026-07-29